Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine surged under Trump’s presidency, as critics say US policy emboldened Moscow
Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine surged under Trump’s presidency, as critics say US policy emboldened Moscow
Russia has more than doubled its aerial attacks on Ukraine since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, a analysis shows, despite his campaign promises to end the war swiftly and calls for a ceasefire.
The data, based on Ukrainian Air Force records, reveals that Russia launched 27,158 drones and missiles between January 20 the start of Trump’s second term and July 19. This marks a dramatic rise from 11,614 munitions fired during the final six months of Joe Biden’s presidency.
Trump, who campaigned on a pledge to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict “within 24 hours,” has faced criticism for policies that some say favor Moscow, including two temporary pauses in US military aid to Kyiv. These suspensions, in March and July, were later reversed, but they coincided with a sharp uptick in Russian missile and drone production.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has increased ballistic missile output by 66% over the past year. The Kremlin is reportedly producing 170 kamikaze drones daily, supported by a vast manufacturing facility in Alabuga, which officials claim is now the largest combat drone factory in the world.
“This brutal war was brought on by Joe Biden’s incompetence, and it has gone on for far too long,” said White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly.
“President Trump wants to stop the killing, and is threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire.”
The early weeks of Trump’s new administration saw a brief decline in Russian attacks, as the White House issued warm statements towards Moscow and signaled openness to a negotiated settlement. But by February, attacks began climbing again including a record 748 munitions launched on July 9, killing two people and injuring over a dozen.
Despite Trump’s repeated public frustrations, including a blunt rebuke “What the hell happened to him Putin?” following a large barrage in May, Moscow has launched more attacks than ever in recent months.
Critics in Washington argue that Trump’s inconsistent policy and temporary suspension of weapons shipments have emboldened Russia.
“It’s clear Putin feels emboldened by Trump’s weakness and has increased his vicious assault on the Ukrainian people,” said Senator Chris Coons, a senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Hospitals, maternity wards, and the power grid are all being attacked.”
Trump has since authorised indirect military support by selling US-made weapons to NATO allies, who then transfer them to Ukraine a move believed to include new Patriot air defense systems. Each Patriot battery costs roughly $1 billion, with individual interceptor missiles costing nearly $4 million.
Still, U.S. analysts warn that restrictions on direct military aid and Russia’s growing production capacity are making Ukraine’s airspace increasingly vulnerable.
“Significant reductions in US interceptor missile supply have encouraged Moscow to escalate,” said Justin Bronk, a military analyst at RUSI.“Combined with Russia’s increased stockpiles, Ukraine is now more exposed to drone and missile strikes.”
Satellite imagery shows that the Alabuga drone factory has expanded rapidly since mid-2024, with new warehouses and dormitory facilities under construction.
Ukrainian journalist Dasha Volk, described the psychological toll of constant bombardment, “Every time you go to sleep, you don’t know if you’ll wake up,” she said.
“People are getting tired. We know what we are fighting for, but it becomes more difficult every year.”
Senator Coons warned that any appearance of US withdrawal could further destabilize the region.
“Trump must show the Kremlin it cannot simply outlast the West,” he said. “That means maintaining a consistent, sustained commitment to Ukraine.”
As Russia prepares to mark 18 months since its full-scale invasion, and Trump presses for a peace deal deadline of August 8, the conflict shows little sign of slowing and Ukraine’s defenses are being tested like never before.
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